Polling and Cell Phones and Women, Oh My!

Folks like me who regularly work with consumer data have long questioned the results of landline-based market research. While a new joint study by Pew and the Associated Press suggests that the non-landline/ cell  phone only crowd is not psychographically distinct from the general population --at least when it comes to politics-- I still wonder if the polling data we're seeing (and the results of the Pew/AP survey) includes all those young, busy active single women who couldn't be bothered with taking surveys (no matter what the method), clipping grocery discount coupons and the like. You know, the ones who are being heavily targeted in key districts this year?

About one in 10 adults in this country have only a cell-phone, based on projections of growth from research, including that done by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Research done during the CDC's National Health Interview Survey suggests the number of cell-phone-only households has been growing by about 1 percentage point every six months over the last few years.

The growth of the cell-phone-only group has raised concerns among survey researchers that it would render obsolete the most commonly used polling method of contacting a random sample of the public on traditional landline phones.

Growth of the cell-phone-only group may eventually reduce their differences from the overall population, said Scott Keeter, a survey researcher at the Pew Research Center.

The biggest differences found between landline phone users and cell-phone only users involved their levels of political engagement.

Just 49 percent of the cell-only users were registered voters, while 78 percent of those in the landline sample were registered voters. That's another reason the cell phone only group has a minimal effect on political polling.

For more on the impact of women on this year's elections, see

• Emily's List: Women at the Center of Political Change
• Center for American Women and Politics: Election Watch
• Bloomberg: Democratic Allies Outspending Republican Groups Before Election
• MyDD: Building the Base: Voter Registration